Tropical Cyclone Nargis

May 2, 2008 Update

 

 

Storm overview

Tropical Cyclone Nargis (01B) struck the southwestern coast of Myanmar (Burma) Friday (May 2) morning local time, packing sustained winds of at least 121 mph (105 knots), according to the Pacific Disaster Center (PDC). No casualty or damage estimates have been issued and Myanmar has not appealed for outside assistance, according to UN sources. Nargis has pushed inland from the Bay of Bengal, blasting through the Mouths of Ayeyarwady (Irrawaddy) delta region of southwestern Myanmar. According to the latest Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) warning #22, the storm has decreased significantly in strength since making landfall. Wind speeds will continue dropping very quickly, showing sustained winds of 85 knots (98 mph), with gusts of 105 knots (121 mph) as of this warning, according to the PDC. The cyclone is now moving in an east-northeast direction (70 degrees), at nine knots (10 mph). The next 24 hours will find the storm weakening further, as it loses steam moving over the physical terrain features of Myanmar, then on into Thailand. Winds within 24 hours will be all the way down to 30 knots (35 mph), with gusts of 40 knots (46 mph) as Nargis fizzles out well inland. As the storm moves away from the coast, the main danger will switch from the violent winds it exhibited over the ocean to the threat of heavy rains with possible mudslides and flash flooding, making for dangerous conditions for the populated areas well into the interior regions, the PDC reported. Bangladesh’s meteorological department reported no effects from Nargis, which began as a tropical depression in the Bay of Bengal and turned into a cyclonic storm on Sunday (April 27) evening. Nargis is the first cyclonic storm in the Bay since Cyclone Sidr devastated coastal Bangladesh as a category-4 storm on November 15.

 

Myanmar

According to the director general of Myanmar’s meteorological department, Nargis began hitting outlying coastal regions of Irrawaddy Division on Friday morning local time. The department said the storm would go on to affect Yangon and Bago (Pegu) Divisions later in the day. Tidal surge reached 10 to 12 feet (3 to 3.5 meters) in some areas. Little information emanates from Myanmar, which has been governed by a series of military regimes since 1962 that have kept the country largely isolated from the outside world. At this time, there are no estimates of casualties or damages. According to the Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System, the population of Irrawaddy Division is around 6.3 million, while Yangon (Rangoon), Myanmar’s main city and former capital, has just over 5 million people. A report from the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) said the most affected coastal areas in Irrawaddy Division were Dedaye, Labutta, Pyapon, Ngaputaw and Pathein townships. Sittwe and Kyauk Phyu in neighboring Rakhine state were also affected.

 

Myanmar has not requested outside assistance, according to UN sources. The IFRC, Medecins Sans Frontieres (Doctors Without Borders) and the NGO Christian Aid said their staffs were able to warn many people ahead of the storm. Warnings also ran on state-run television and in local newspapers, although local media say many people have access to neither. The IFRC assembled three response teams that included disaster management, health, communications and first-aid specialists ahead of the storm and stationed them on stand-by to support local Red Cross branches. In May 2004, the junta made a rare request for assistance after a cyclone hit Rakhine state, killing at least 140 people and displacing around 18,000 others. Some casualty estimates put the death toll for the 2004 storm at more than 1,000. It was reportedly the worst storm to hit Rakhine since 1968 and carried sustained winds up to 100 mph. Cyclone season in the Bay of Bengal typically runs from May through November.

 

Bangladesh

Although Bangladeshi authorities had issued maritime warnings and ordered the acceleration of the Boro rice harvest ahead of the storm, as projected the storm missed the country by hundreds of miles. According to a forecaster from Bangladesh’s Meteorological Department, southeastern coastal districts felt no effects from the storm Friday and no abnormal winds or rains were expected. Fishing crews are still advised to stay close to shore and there is still a possibility of tidal surge.

 

Thailand

According to the JTWC warning, Nargis will cross into Thailand’s Mae Hong Son and Chiang Mai provinces about mid-day Saturday (May 3) local time with winds around 35 mph (30 knots). Thailand’s Meteorological Department issued a warning Friday for residents of 14 provinces to brace themselves for heavy rains and possible flash flooding. The provinces put on alert also include Chiang Rai, Tak, Lamphun, Lampang, Phrae, Uttaradit, Sukhothai, Phitsanulok, Nakhon Sawan, Uthai Thani, Kanchanaburi and Ranong. Additionally, public health officials in eight of those provinces are on stand-by to respond in case of a cyclone-related emergency.