Tropical Cyclone Nargis

April 30, 2008 Update

 

 

 

Storm overview

Tropical Cyclone Nargis (01B) is gaining strength in the Bay of Bengal and is projected to hit the western coast of Myanmar on Friday (May 2) afternoon local time. With current wind speeds of 81 mph (70 knots) and gusting to 98 mph (85 knots), the storm is expected to peak at sea early Friday before making landfall as a category-2 cyclone, according to the Pacific Disaster Center (PDC). Nargis is currently located about 620 miles (1000 km) southeast of the Chittagong port district of southeastern Bangladesh. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC’s) latest warning #13 indicates that the storm is turning toward the northeast at the relatively slow pace of six mph (five knots). Nargis began as a tropical depression in the Bay of Bengal and turned into a cyclonic storm on Sunday (April 27) evening, making it the first cyclone in the Bay since Cyclone Sidr, which devastated coastal Bangladesh when it hit as a category-4 storm on November 15. While southeastern coastal areas of Bangladesh will likely see heavy winds and rains as a result of the storm, on its current track Nargis will spare the southwestern areas of Bangladesh that were worst-hit by Sidr. According to British-based Tropical Storm Risk, Nargis should land in Myanmar as a category 2 storm, indicating storm surge of 6 to 8 feet (1.8 to 2.4 meters) above normal and potential damage to buildings, trees and poorly constructed piers. There is also potential for flooding inland due to heavy rains.

 

Myanmar

At the current projection, the storm will make landfall in Rakhine (Arakan) state of Myanmar just north of the Mouths of the Irrawaddy (Ayeyarwady) River with landfall wind speeds of 81 mph (70 knots) and move inland, losing speed as it drops rainfall, according to the PDC. Preceding the storm's arrival, dangerously large pounding surf will arrive on the coast, along with a significant storm surge as the central eye moves from the ocean over land, affecting locations to the right of the crossing point as well, the PDC reports. Dangerously strong winds, along with heavy precipitation of a flooding nature, will assault coastal residents. As the storm moves inland, the winds will diminish, although heavy rains with possible mudslides and flash flooding will make for dangerous conditions for the highly populated areas well away from the coast, the PDC reports. The closest major population center will likely be the Irrawaddy Division’s Yangon (Rangoon), Myanmar’s former capital and largest city, with an estimated population of 6 million. Rhakine state’s population is estimated to be between 2 and 3 million, keeping in mind that little current information emanates from Myanmar, which has been ruled by a series of military juntas since 1962. Myanmar saw tidal surge following a cyclone in May 2007, but reported no damages. In May 2004, the junta made a rare request for assistance after a cyclone hit Rakhine state, killing at least 140 people and displacing around 18,000 others. It was reportedly the worst storm to hit Rakhine since 1968 and carried sustained winds up to 100 mph. Cyclone season in the Bay of Bengal typically runs from May through November.

 

 

Bangladesh

Although Nargis is expected to primarily affect Myanmar, officials in neighboring disaster-prone Bangladesh are urging farmers to speed up their current rice harvest for fear that wind and rain from the storm may ruin the crop, Reuters and the BBC reported Tuesday (April 29). Local media reported that coastal residents panicked at the news of Nargis’ approach. Bangladesh is still reeling from Cyclone Sidr, a category-4 storm that struck on November 15, killing nearly 3,400 people, displacing more than 2 million and destroying around 1.8 million tons of rice just months after a worse-than-average monsoon season wiped out about 1.2 million tons of rice. With Bangladesh facing a severe food shortage and the price of rice on the rise across the globe, officials have been comforted by the news of a bumper crop of its main Boro rice. The spring Boro harvest began about a week ago and was expected to yield 17.5 million tons - 2 million tons more than last year's. Under normal circumstances, the harvest would continue for two more weeks. Even if all of the Boro is harvested, the government anticipates Bangladesh will still have to rely heavily on the international aid that has been pledged in the aftermath of Cyclone Sidr. The government issued an alert in the Chittagong region Tuesday, telling residents to prepare for quick evacuation and advising farmers across the country to harvest as much Boro rice as possible as quickly as they can. Most Boro crops lie inland and may escape adverse weather conditions caused by the cyclone. On Wednesday, Bangladesh’s Ministry of Food and Disaster Management’s Information Center (DMIC) reported that officials had warned mariners to remain close to shore until further notice. According to local The Daily Star newspaper, there are about 403 cyclone shelters in the Chittagong area, not nearly enough to provide shelter to the roughly 700,000 people living in the region’s coastal belt. Officials in other coastal districts, including Khulna and Bagerhat, have also taken precautionary measures, alerting NGO field workers of the possibility of the needs for rescue operations. The storm is also expected to bring heavy rains to India’s eastern coasts, particularly the states of Orissa and West Bengal.