In a recent visit to the Center of Excellence, I had the opportunity to reflect on the promise and the practice of the early warning of humanitarian disasters and to learn about the various projects of the Center. At the present time, there are over 45 million people worldwide who are displaced from their homes, living in refugee camps and similar horrific situations. The human cost of these dislocations are huge, both in terms of the immediate deprivations, the risks of disease and the incalculable long-term costs to the social fabric and well-being of those affected. The promise of early warning is that, armed with better and more timely information, decision-makers and humanitarian disaster agencies can be better prepared for these dislocations and, in some measure, can mitigate and perhaps even prevent these disasters.

The causes of humanitarian disasters are complex. In addition to natural disasters, the major factor is generalized political violence that makes normal life impossible and compels groups to flee their homes. This violence often has deep roots in longstanding poverty, economic exploitation, severe ethnic discrimination and corrupt and inefficient governments that victimize specific groups and often the general citizenry. This has led many to contend that there are no quick solutions to these conflicts, that little can be done to prevent these crises and that the best approach is to remain uninvolved.

Nothing could be more wrong. While there is much to be said for the first argument that these conflicts often have deep and longstanding root causes, the rest of the argument does not flow from this. Recent experiences in East Timor, Fiji, the Korean peninsula, Northern Ireland and Yugoslavia demonstrate that there are preventive measures that can be put in place that will counteract the tendencies towards a spiral of violence and spreading instability. Strong preventive diplomacy coupled with the willingness to use appropriate military force and economic assistance can help to diffuse a tense and potentially dangerous situation. Brought to focus on long-term societal interests, political leaders are often able to act in a way that makes violence less likely.

What can early warning do in this situation? The Center of Excellence has the mandate to develop a comprehensive system of disaster preparedness and humanitarian early warning for the Pacific basin. Within this region exist some of the most troublesome potential "hot spots" in the world alongside some of the most dramatic economic success stories in recent human history. By combining its focus on information-sharing, the use of open source materials along with secure information and by developing a strong engagement with humanitarian disaster agencies as well as academic experts in various subjects relevant to early warning, the Center has the ability to develop as a center for developing and refining the art of early warning.

Intelligence agencies have long practiced early warning, using a variety of information development methods and decision-making techniques to make assessments of the likelihood of various outcomes. Avoiding major disaster is always the top priority with a secondary focus on securing more optimal outcomes. The role of the analyst is to synthesize a wide range of information that allows them to anticipate the likely course of events and to identify the possibilities for proactive intervention. To do this, one has to be a quick study, able to evaluate conflicting information with an understanding of the limits of all sources, and make informed recommendations that are the best available. Aside from resources and time, which are never adequate, there is the powerful need for clear thinking and a firm understanding of the forces at work.

At this point, the Center of Excellence and other humanitarian early warning efforts need to engage both those with practical field experience and those with analytic skills in social and political forecasting, scenario analysis and the identification of social and political trends. Without insight and up-to-date methods of evaluation, improved information is only so valuable. Here academics like myself who have area expertise and/or special skills in terms of formal data analysis, counterfactual and scenario analysis, the evaluation of complex models of political crises and political reconstruction, and methods for information reduction and presentation should be fruitful collaborators. While "real time" assessment and in-depth and timely information are not our stock in trade, we can provide useful methods for understanding that can help capture recurrent patterns and structured contingencies. We can also suggest ways of organizing information so that it is more manageable and can be better used in decision-making. We can also help contribute to an understanding of recurrent patterns of political crises.

What makes political crises different from natural disasters is the human dimension. A natural disaster will occur based on natural processes. The best we can do is to understand the forces at work, assign reasonable probabilities and act effectively to minimize our risk. Political crises in contrast have an irreducible human element. Optimally we can use our knowledge of the likely outcomes to persuade others to change their behavior and thus reduce the risk. At the same time there is the possibility of strategic interaction and deception in which other actors use the fact that we are anticipating their actions to counter these actions and block our interventions. Political disasters are thus much less predictable than natural disasters. Typically the best we can hope for is an awareness of the general trends and possibilities for a particular situation. Informed by good information and clear understanding, humanitarian early warning is well worth the investment and the risk. A broader partnership of the type that the Center of Excellence is attempting to create holds great promise.

J. Craig Jenkins, Ph.D, is Professor of Sociology and Faculty Associate at the Mershon Center for Inter-national Security, The Ohio State University. His research deals with political conflict and instability, including the early warning of humanitarian disasters and political crises and democratization.