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Background

A large explosion results in the destruction of an important government building. A bombing at Perfidia destroyed the provincial HQ; there are civilian victims; no one claimed responsibility; the Ethnic Liberation Army denied involvement; fire fighters and police managed the situation; a large cache of weapons seized in Greek registered vessel consisted of plastic explosives and ammunition; there were likely prior illegal shipments of arms intended for and/or used for terrorist acts.

Threat groups

1. Ethnic Liberation Army. ELA is opposed to relations between Italy and Minerva; they have renounced the government's offers to become a legitimate political party; the majority are extremists that would like to resume violent activities; their operation is in Northern province in Minerva; most of the members are candidates or supporters associated with some politicians in Minerva; in past years they have been involved in kidnappings, bombings, and robberies.
2. Millenarian Army Faction. MAF was founded in Ghana; members are radicals and violent; they attacked NATO forces, medical workers, and soldiers; most recently killed were 18 civilians in Athens; they have no structural ideology but follow their leader Dr. K; Dr. K is convinced that the end of the world is near and that everyone who does not join him will be killed; the MAF cell in Utopia consists primarily of Slobonians and a few from other countries.
3. Other. ELA alone cannot have committed the bombing in Minerva. They have the intention but as of yet have no capability. MAF could have done the attack, but the reasons are unclear as to what their motivations would have been. The act may have been committed by parts of these groups that cannot be controlled. Some explosives were found. It is possible that ELA and a faction of the terrorist cell of the MAF committed the bombing. MAF were responsible for the plastic explosives and it is ELA that is fighting the government. Unwittingly, MAF is helping ELA.

Group 1: Recommendations

Short-term

Condemnation of the terrorist act; inform the police who did it; ensure security of population and vital installations to bring back normalcy as soon as possible because there is currently a feeling of fear within the population; enhance police capacity because their numbers and capabilities are insufficient to combat these terrorists; use military force to help police with the intention that it will be used on a limited basis in securing vital installations and areas. This is an internal problem that can be solved by the police.

Long-term

Address past causes of acts of insurgency and terrorism; restructure laws to enable police to properly perform their job, i.e., they need to be able to carry firearms; provide funding for the police and military; form a national intelligence coordinating party, headed by the secretary of the interior, to effectively address this particular group. What happened will have a great impact on the country psychologically, politically, and economically, therefore the immediate action must be to bring back normalcy to the area and ensure security for the population. Peacekeeping forces should remain on their current assignment - - if removed we are giving the terrorists what they want. Use the military on a limited basis. Over time the people will feel threatened by their own forces, if they are not deployed to other areas, but feeling safe from further acts is the priority.

Group 2: Recommendations

Short-term

Negotiate with Italia faction and challenge them to turn over the perpetrators; condemn the act to the public - initially there is no capability to pinpoint anyone, so use general terms; investigate the financial linkages; increase security measures for critical infrastructure; utilize the military to assist the police forces, utilize the coast guard to prevent smuggling of further weapons into the country; create a joint intelligence task force; pursue diplomatic coordination with Slobonia, Greece, and Italy regarding the actions of these cross-national terrorists for negotiation and extradition purposes; interrogate the local cell; pursue the results of the investigation; create a Minerva Peace and Order Coordinating Council to help government units work together to solve problem in Minerva; seek humanitarian assistance of food and medicine for the victims of the bombing.

Long-term

Discuss and consider demands; solicit foreign aid for recruitment of police and equipment as well as for training a counter-terrorist unit; consider emergency legislation; strengthen the justice system; develop process for public warning and awareness to inform the public of the seriousness of the situation and emergency procedures in case of bombs; create a peace and order council; implement psychological operations to counter propaganda; create national intelligence agency which will be directly under the President to coordinate and consolidate all intelligence efforts and for reporting of policy and decision making; continue commitment to peacekeeping so that the group responsible will see that we are not afraid; add police to current force to ensure security; pass legislation to allow collaboration between the military and police and implement that law.

Group 3: Recommendations

Short-term

Look after health and social welfare of those affected; conduct immediate rescue operations; provide medial assistance through local and international NGOs and organizations; allow for assistance of other countries through humanitarian efforts; establish extradition treaty with other surrounding countries; give a public statement to investors that we are financially and politically stable so their investments will not be withdrawn; start safety nets that are incentives for investors, i.e., low interest rates, tax breaks, etc.; the president should condemn terrorist act locally and internationally to gain support for future efforts; strengthen public information center to inform them of what is really happening and make them feel secure; improve road and railway systems and ports and harbors; assist in the transportation of humanitarian assistance.

Long-term

Expedite entry into NATO because they have a counter-terrorism policy; strengthen bilateral ties with Italy and Greece because they may be able to help us diffuse the situation of unrest and possibly negotiate with leaders of secessionist movement; update and inform ambassadors in country of what happened lately and also of future incidents which might convince them that we need their cooperation in national efforts; increase the budget for security i.e. police forces, military, equipment, intelligence; place military and police under the control of the Minerva government; create a national counter-terrorist center to aid in coordination between government, police, and domestic and international intelligence agencies; create a rapid deployment counter-terrorist force to respond to terrorist threats; deploy forces and concentrate them on lines of communication and transportation to facilitate the transport of military security forces and humanitarian assistance; establish a communication network to allow information to flow not only one way but also from the public to authorities to prevent future threat groups; arm the police force.

Intelligence gathered has suggested that our top priority would be the MAF. They have the ability to export terrorism and their intent is to protest the deployment of our forces to Slobonia. It is their intent to attack whatever nation supports the NATO peacekeeping. The ELA has made a statement disclaiming the bombing statement. It is disadvantageous for them to bomb their own constituents because it will derail support. Furthermore, they do not have the logistics to carry out this terrorist act because their international support has been cut and only 15-20% of the population supports them, and of course the security measures that we are now employing in that area have drastically deterred their capabilities to conduct terrorist acts. One way to get money for an increased security budget is to realign our budget from other ministry budgets or to ask for international loans. It will allow us to beef up our security process and raise money to repay our loans. The chief executive of Minerva and local forces can address the need for new legislation locally.

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