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Purpose

This session permits in-depth discussion on the variety and nature of transitions that take place in complex emergencies, and the realities of implementing them.

Background

Complex emergencies, particularly those that involve a failed state, are characterized as having many identifiable transitions. In a failed state, these transitions will involve all of the elements of a civil society: the justice system (i.e., police, courts and prisons or other acceptable systems of justice), the educational and health systems and institutions, the financial system, and so on. This topic requires specific focus because while transitions are recognized, execution is extremely challenging: transitions are tied to the definition of the end state, they require that certain conditions be present, they involve host nation development, coordination of many sectors, and a plan and process for execution need to be developed and agreed upon.

Discussion Points

1. Why are transitions key to the success or failure of an intervention?
2. What/who are these transitions from/to, and how are they planned for and implemented?
3. What are the transitions that the indigenous society must go through and how do these transitions affect the mission?
4. When must transitions be defined and planned for, and to what extent?
5. What happens if a transition is poorly defined and executed?
6. How can transitions and the process of planning for them be improved?
7. What are the planning considerations for transition of a multinational force mission to a UN operation? 8. What is a transition for one component may be the end state for another. How do these relate and how is the coordination accomplished?

Discussion Summary

I. Broad Transition Issues

Transformation is what is happening in the society, vs. a transition that is happening within the UNÕs intervention.

The UN can anticipate transitions but they are born out of transformation in the society. For example, refugees who are nearby decide that things look better and they will want to go back at the earliest opportunity, even thought the roads may not be safe enough yet.

Transition is a gradual, continuous process. National security should be an issue for the people who understand the situation best. The people first on the ground should be intuitively able to understand. We want to try to move from a security guaranteed by an outside agency to giving the control to the people themselves.

ShouldnÕt you have a vision of where you want to end up? An idea of the end state should be stated somewhere in the plan. Just to acknowledge it isnÕt enough. Conceptually make it clear before the military intervenes in a peacekeeping capacity. The point is that, for example, if you are an agrarian society, this is the time to break the dependency cycle, maybe scheduling an election is not as important as taking time to plant crops. In east Timor, the second Thai contingent saw the needs in the agricultural sector and brought in a sustainable village concept, near the first aid post. They supported seed stocks and fisheries, and got the people interested in tending the land, and then sold the idea to the Department of Agriculture to migrate the concept throughout East Timor. When most of us think of rehabilitation, we think of city infrastructure, whereas we need to consider farms and other sectors as well.

ThereÕs great need to understand the structure of the society. Say itÕs a matriarchal society. Leaving something like that out can be a real problem. Unless an organization has been watching and gives you intelligence about the situation, it could be difficult. Maybe the people that are suffering are in the best place to help. Often the parties most visible in a conflict as are not always the real leadership who should be consulted. The voices that should be heard are not visible. Moving ahead blindly without doing an assessment gives the impression that a third party is imposing its own will. With Afghanistan as an example, there were container massacres that occurred nine months back that have not been addressed. At first the coalition force moved in with purpose and definite objectives, but now things are not so clear. If you want peace to be enduring, then a greater understanding of Afghanistan has to be taken into accord. If the northern alliance (non-Pashtuns) is ignored, that would be unproductive. It is equally wrong to ignore the Pashtuns. Sometimes history repeats. There are similarities between East Timor and the Korean peninsula of 50 years ago. East Timor now has its own institutions. There is a need for proper training to function as a sovereign nation. There should be a schedule at DPKO HQ to allow this to happen.

How do you determine when the end state is truly achieved? In Cambodia, for example, the agenda -- to give voting rights -- was achieved. When does the winner of the election become the key player of this transition? For example, would the present winner be willing to have the UN presence in place for the next ten years? If I am the winner, am I to pay to have all these agencies remain and help me? CouldnÕt I just say, ÒThank you, I won and now you can go?Ó Perhaps it will depend on whether or not the winner is as strong as the opposition. If the winner is weaker, they are likely to think twice before asking the UN to leave. And sometimes you wonder if it is in their best interest to have some supervision on some issues, such as the availability of weapons. Still, on other issues like helping with refugees, they would probably desire a prolonged presence. When power is transferred, the power aspirations for the people in the area must be taken into consideration.

Where do the locals fit in to the picture? Are they included when missions change? The mandate in the UN resolution and any peace agreement must take into account the local situation. If the locals are not satisfied and are not taken into confidence, the solution is foreign and there is no durable peace. At every stage the issue of local leadership acceptance is critical. Papua New Guinea has tribal structures and other countries have chiefs. UNTAET provides good examples of some successes, but the East Timorese did not take up some items. A lot of times at the beginning they do not have a common view. For example, the proposed civic education program was completely rejected by the East Timorese. The template was Cambodia. The East Timorese didnÕt want someone elseÕs view of what a democratic system should be. They promised a standoff unless the East Timorese had full input. After a while an agreement was and a new system was designed side by side. This final effort represents a true partnership.

What if we had a transitional administration in Bosnia? Would the situation there be more dynamic and accessible? Bosnia is a case of an undetermined end state. Bosnia is stuck -- itÕs not in transition. In Bosnia there are pockets within pockets of society, an area of multiple conflicts. Everyone wanted a separate homeland. There should have been a referendum to let people go there own way. Where is Bosnia & Herzegovina going? With one party fully armed and one unarmed there can be no peace. The Dayton Accords was the best you could get at that time and under those circumstances. Listening to the voice of the people is not going to provide a viable and lasting solution. If somebody else not party to the conflict was in charge, some progress might be made.

You have to plan for transitions when planning for intervention. But recognize that within the first stabilization process there will be a need to build a new consensus to possibly transition to another state. Two years is not enough time. What happens if there is no consensus? Transition has to start with no determinable time frame. It simply allows society to exist. But the underlying political issues are not resolved yet. We have to build a consensus of what the parties want to transition to.

II. Sector-Specific Issues

Public awareness is a very important process. People cannot help if they donÕt know what the issues are. You would have to also educate the people on a broader scale through education, starting from elementary schools. It should be pointed out from the beginning that funding is needed for the implementation of education. Of concern is how to get a broad civil service in place. Educating a social service takes time and effort.

There is the issue of reconciliation to consider. In the Pacific, for example, there is a particular reconciliation process. If the public could internationalize the process of reconciliation, that could be good. Cultural approaches have to be considered and folded in. Conflicts can arise in each activity or process. Who will be the person that would be responsible to resolve the conflict? It has to be someone with authority.

Economic development also requires attention. You want to create an element of hope through the entire process. It is not only based on stability but on economic development. Some people would argue that the social and economic phase would start much earlier than has been attended to in the past. The situation can only stabilize if people are provided with opportunity to work and feed their families. Until you can show alternatives are coming, you cannot have political stability. So maybe the economical and social part needs to be placed at the beginning. Economic disparities must be minimized by solutions that are introduced. Economic course of action must meet aspirations of the people.

The public information campaign is also important when making transitions. When going from a multinational force to a regional force, such as from a UN force to ECOMOG, if you suddenly change forces and people think they are getting a lower quality force, it can be a confidence problem. But if you give the perception that both forces are good, it is just one that is changing to the other, it is okay. You must reassure people that they are not being abandoned.

When peacekeepers are ready to hand over, they are often handing over to defense forces when they should be handing over many of these tasks to the police. When soldiers are around, this is an indication that things are not normal. In Haiti, you had a remainder of police left over. Not so in East Timor where there was no existing police force.

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